<div id="bsx-anchor" style="--accent:#3b5bdb;--hot:#e8590c;--ok:#0ca678;--fg:#1a1d24;--muted:#6b7280;--ring:#e5e7eb;--bg:#fff;--soft:#f1f3f9"><style>#bsx-anchor{box-sizing:border-box;max-width:540px;margin:0 auto;background:var(--bg);color:var(--fg);border:1px solid var(--ring);border-radius:16px;padding:22px;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif}#bsx-anchor *{box-sizing:border-box}#bsx-anchor h3{margin:0 0 4px;font-size:19px}#bsx-anchor p{margin:0 0 12px;font-size:14px;line-height:1.55}#bsx-anchor .step{font-size:12px;font-weight:700;color:var(--accent);text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.04em}#bsx-anchor .num{font-size:40px;font-weight:800;text-align:center;color:var(--accent);margin:8px 0 2px}#bsx-anchor .numcap{text-align:center;font-size:12px;color:var(--muted);margin:0 0 14px}#bsx-anchor .q{font-weight:700;font-size:15px;margin:6px 0 10px}#bsx-anchor .opts{display:flex;gap:12px}#bsx-anchor .opt{flex:1;font:inherit;font-size:15px;font-weight:700;padding:13px;border-radius:11px;border:1.5px solid var(--ring);background:#fff;color:var(--fg);cursor:pointer;transition:.15s}#bsx-anchor .opt:hover{border-color:var(--accent);transform:translateY(-1px)}#bsx-anchor .est{display:flex;gap:10px;margin-top:4px}#bsx-anchor .est input{flex:1;font:inherit;font-size:16px;padding:11px;border-radius:10px;border:1.5px solid var(--ring)}#bsx-anchor .est button{font:inherit;font-size:14px;font-weight:700;padding:11px 16px;border-radius:10px;border:none;background:var(--accent);color:#fff;cursor:pointer}#bsx-anchor #bsx-rev{display:none}#bsx-anchor .row{display:flex;justify-content:space-between;gap:10px;font-size:13px;padding:9px 0;border-bottom:1px solid var(--soft)}#bsx-anchor .row b{font-weight:800}#bsx-anchor .msg{font-size:14px;line-height:1.6;margin-top:12px}#bsx-anchor .src{display:block;margin-top:10px;color:var(--muted);font-size:11.5px;line-height:1.5}#bsx-anchor .again{margin-top:12px;font:inherit;font-size:13px;font-weight:700;padding:8px 14px;border-radius:9px;border:none;background:var(--accent);color:#fff;cursor:pointer}</style><h3>A quick guessing game</h3><p id="bsx-intro">Two questions you almost certainly do not know the answer to. Before each one, we will show you a number that has nothing to do with it.</p><div id="bsx-game"><div class="step" id="bsx-stp">Question 1 of 2</div><div class="num" id="bsx-anc"></div><div class="numcap">an arbitrary number, drawn at random, unrelated to the question</div><div id="bsx-cmp"><div class="q" id="bsx-cmpq"></div><div class="opts"><button class="opt" id="bsx-hi"></button><button class="opt" id="bsx-lo"></button></div></div><div id="bsx-estbox" style="display:none"><div class="q" id="bsx-estq"></div><div class="est"><input type="number" id="bsx-estin" inputmode="numeric" placeholder="your number"><button id="bsx-estgo">Lock in</button></div></div></div><div id="bsx-rev"><div class="step">What just happened</div><div id="bsx-rows" style="margin-top:8px"></div><p class="msg" id="bsx-msg"></p><span class="src">Anchoring (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974), confirmed as one of the most reliably replicated effects in psychology across dozens of labs (Klein et al., 2014). Tallest living tree about 116 m; there are 54 countries in Africa.</span><button class="again" id="bsx-again">Try again</button></div><script>(function(){var $=function(s){return document.getElementById(s)};function ri(a,b){return Math.floor(a+Math.random()*(b-a+1));}function build(){ return [ {anc:ri(150,205), dir:'high', truth:116, cmpq:'Is the world’s tallest living tree taller or shorter than that many metres?', hi:'Taller', lo:'Shorter', estq:'Your best guess: the tallest living tree is about how many metres tall?', label:'Tallest tree (m)'}, {anc:ri(9,18), dir:'low', truth:54, cmpq:'Are there more or fewer countries in Africa than that?', hi:'More', lo:'Fewer', estq:'Your best guess: how many countries are there in Africa?', label:'Countries in Africa'} ];}var R=build(), idx=0, est=[];function showCmp(){ var r=R[idx]; $('bsx-stp').textContent='Question '+(idx+1)+' of 2'; $('bsx-anc').textContent=r.anc; $('bsx-cmpq').textContent=r.cmpq; $('bsx-hi').textContent=r.hi; $('bsx-lo').textContent=r.lo; $('bsx-cmp').style.display='block'; $('bsx-estbox').style.display='none';}function showEst(){ var r=R[idx]; $('bsx-cmp').style.display='none'; $('bsx-estbox').style.display='block'; $('bsx-estq').textContent=r.estq; $('bsx-estin').value=''; $('bsx-estin').focus(); }function submitEst(){ var v=parseFloat($('bsx-estin').value); if(isNaN(v)) return; est[idx]=v; idx++; if(idx<R.length){ showCmp(); } else { reveal(); }}function reveal(){ $('bsx-game').style.display='none'; $('bsx-intro').style.display='none'; $('bsx-rev').style.display='block'; var rows=$('bsx-rows'); rows.innerHTML=''; R.forEach(function(r,i){ var d=document.createElement('div'); d.className='row'; d.innerHTML='<span>'+r.label+'<br><span style="color:var(--muted);font-size:12px">shown '+(r.dir==='high'?'a high':'a low')+' number: '+r.anc+'</span></span>'+ '<span style="text-align:right">your guess <b>'+est[0+i]+'</b><br><span style="color:var(--muted);font-size:12px">real answer '+r.truth+'</span></span>'; rows.appendChild(d); }); var pulledHigh = est[0] > R[0].truth, pulledLow = est[1] < R[1].truth; var m='Both numbers we put in front of you were arbitrary, drawn at random and unrelated to the questions. They still worked. We showed you a <b>high</b> number before the tree and a <b>low</b> one before Africa, and that starting point quietly sets where the mind begins, then adjusts away from, almost always not far enough. '; if(pulledHigh && pulledLow){ m+='Sure enough, your tree guess ran high and your Africa guess ran low, exactly the way we pushed.'; } else if(pulledHigh || pulledLow){ m+='At least one of your guesses leaned the way we pushed, which is the usual pattern.'; } else { m+='Your guesses happened to resist this time, but across thousands of people the pull is reliable and one of the strongest effects in the whole field.'; } m+=' That is <b>anchoring</b>, and it is worth knowing because it is the most replicated bias there is: a number on a price tag, a first offer, an opening figure in a negotiation, all tug your judgement before you have reasoned at all.'; $('bsx-msg').innerHTML=m;}$('bsx-hi').onclick=showEst; $('bsx-lo').onclick=showEst; $('bsx-estgo').onclick=submitEst;$('bsx-estin').addEventListener('keydown',function(e){if(e.key==='Enter')submitEst();});$('bsx-again').onclick=function(){R=build();idx=0;est=[];$('bsx-rev').style.display='none';$('bsx-game').style.display='block';$('bsx-intro').style.display='block';showCmp();};showCmp();})();</script></div>
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